The United States could be heading toward a future with reduced water availability, lower crop yields, and more frequent droughts if current climate trends continue, according to a new analysis by AccuWeather experts.
The study examined data from government weather stations across 44 regions nationwide and found several concerning long-term shifts. Over the past 70 years, average U.S. temperatures have increased by about 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit. While relative humidity remained fairly stable until the mid-1990s, it has since dropped sharply—down 5.3 percent overall, or roughly 1.7 percent per decade.
Rainfall patterns are also changing. Since 1995, average annual precipitation has declined by about 2.7 percent, even as extreme rainfall events have become more common. Heavy rainstorms delivering more than four inches in 24 hours have increased by 70 percent, while storms exceeding two inches are up 23 percent. According to AccuWeather, this means rain is increasingly falling in short, intense bursts rather than steady, soaking events that replenish soil moisture and water supplies.
Joel Myers, founder and executive chair of AccuWeather, said the combination of rising temperatures, declining humidity, and less effective rainfall is especially troubling. He noted that rainfall now evaporates more quickly and contributes less to crops, reservoirs, lakes, and groundwater. As a result, “effective” rainfall across the U.S. may be declining by two to three percent per decade.
Myers explained that until around 1995, temperatures and dew points rose together, keeping relative humidity stable. Since then, temperatures have continued to climb while dew points have largely leveled off. This imbalance has led to lower humidity levels and increased evaporation, signaling what Myers described as a possible climate “tipping point.”
If these trends persist, AccuWeather warns of accelerating impacts on agriculture, shrinking crop-growing regions, more frequent and intense wildfires, and worsening drought conditions. Drier soils absorb less heat through evaporation, allowing surface temperatures to rise faster and further intensify heat and dryness.
The study also highlights a feedback loop: drier soil leads to more dust in the air, which interferes with cloud formation and rainfall, resulting in even less precipitation and more heat. Over time, this cycle could contribute to the expansion of desert-like conditions in parts of the country.
AccuWeather cautioned that climate patterns can shift over decades and that national averages may mask regional differences. Still, experts warn that if current trends continue, water supplies, agriculture, and ecosystems across the U.S. could face serious challenges in the coming decades.
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