This November, a key battle in a Colorado Senate district on the Western Slope—an area roughly the size of Massachusetts—could grant state Democrats a level of legislative power they haven’t seen since 1938.
If Republican Marc Catlin, a state representative from Montrose, wins, it will act as a barrier for Democrats, who currently control the state legislature. Conversely, if Democrat Cole Buerger, a business owner from Glenwood Springs, emerges victorious, the party could secure supermajorities in both chambers of the General Assembly.
With two-thirds majorities in the House and Senate, Democrats would have the ability to significantly alter the Colorado Constitution, impacting areas such as taxation, elections, and criminal justice. They could also override any vetoes from Governor Jared Polis, limiting one of his major negotiating tools. Although convincing enough members from both parties to take such actions would be challenging, the expanded majority would likely influence decision-making.
Outgoing Senate President Steve Fenberg, a Democrat from Boulder, noted, It’s more of a psychological impact. It makes it less likely that Democrats will lose a majority anytime soon, and maybe people will be more willing to take politically risky votes.
While it’s not guaranteed that Democrats will achieve supermajorities, the prospect has become increasingly appealing for progressives in recent years. House Democrats already have a supermajority and will be defending it this November, while Senate Democrats, with a current 23-12 majority, are just one seat away.
I fight for as big of majorities as we can in every election, said Shad Murib, chair of the state Democratic Party. It doesn’t matter whether it’s a majority or supermajority; we’re going to get big things done.
Senate District 5 is one of five competitive Senate seats up for grabs in November, and it’s the district Democrats feel is the most critical for securing their supermajority. Of the five, Democrats are defending two seats, while Republicans are defending three. To gain the supermajority, Democrats need to win at least three districts, and they are optimistic about two of them, with District 5 being uncertain.
Currently represented by Republican Perry Will of New Castle, the district will see a new election this year as Will opted not to run for reelection, instead pursuing a position as a Garfield County commissioner. The district has not seen an election since the state’s redistricting process in 2021. Initially, nonpartisan analysts deemed the district slightly Republican-leaning, but more recent data presents a mixed picture of the potential outcome.
We haven’t seen this district perform, so everybody’s mathematical calculation is a little bit different, said Senate Minority Leader Paul Lundeen, a Republican from Monument. “It seems to be in the middle, but we lack precise metrics.
Senate District 5 covers a vast area, stretching from the Interstate 70 corridor in Garfield County through the Roaring Fork Valley to Hinsdale County, near the state’s southern border. It encompasses all of Pitkin, Gunnison, and Hinsdale counties, as well as portions of Delta, Montrose, Garfield, and Eagle counties.
In terms of voter registration, Republicans make up 28% of the district’s electorate, Democrats comprise 20%, while unaffiliated voters represent a significant 50%.
Garfield County is expected to be a battleground, having shifted from a staunchly Republican area to a more competitive landscape in recent elections. Although most voters in the county are unaffiliated, registered Democrats are close to surpassing registered Republicans. In 2021, Republicans led by about 1,200 registered voters, but that gap has now narrowed to 380.
Whoever appeals to the center in Garfield is going to win, stated Tim Foster, a former Republican Majority Leader from Grand Junction. If you lean too far left or right, you’ll lose ground.”
In 2022, Will won Garfield County by approximately 9 percentage points while Polis, a Democrat, won the county by 12 percentage points. In 2020, the county favored President Joe Biden by 2 points.
Voters in Pitkin, Gunnison, and Eagle counties typically support Democrats, while Delta, Montrose, and Hinsdale counties generally lean Republican.
An analysis conducted when Senate District 5’s boundaries were drawn in 2021 indicated a slight preference for Cory Gardner, a Republican, by 3 percentage points in the 2020 U.S. Senate election. However, a precinct-level study of the 2022 results revealed a more challenging outlook for Republicans, with Polis winning by 10 points and other Democrats winning by narrower margins.
Another factor that may benefit Buerger is the lack of support from the state Republican Party, which is currently dealing with internal strife. Republican candidates have reported feeling isolated as the party’s resources have been limited, particularly after funding was allocated to support Dave Williams’ failed congressional campaign.
The state party recently labeled Senate District 5 as one of its most critical races, soliciting donations for Catlin’s campaign while also criticizing Buerger for emphasizing his sexual orientation in past campaigns. Catlin distanced himself from the party’s email, stating he did not approve it and that he believes the race should focus on issues rather than identity.
Both candidates have prioritized affordability and water issues in their campaigns. Buerger aims to lower healthcare costs and encourage construction of single-family homes and condominiums, while Catlin is focused on protecting Western Slope water resources and promoting conservation.
Their primary disagreements stem from their differing backgrounds. Catlin has been in the legislature since 2017, building a reputation as a bipartisan figure who collaborates with fellow Western Slope lawmakers, especially on water policy. He voted in favor of over half the bills passed by the Democrat-controlled General Assembly this year and was appointed vice chair of the House Agriculture, Water & Natural Resources Committee, a significant role for a member of the minority party.
Buerger argues that Catlin’s bipartisanship is more about necessity than genuine desire, given the Republican minority’s constraints.
Catlin’s supporters have raised concerns about Buerger’s previous election attempts, noting his unsuccessful bids for both Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District and House District 57.
When discussing his opponent, Catlin emphasized the importance of experience, stating, “It takes a good amount of experience to be effective right away.” Meanwhile, Buerger claims he can bring a fresh perspective to the legislature and would focus on the needs of rural Colorado communities.
Buerger aims to provide a counterbalance to potential ideological agendas from Front Range lawmakers, advocating for local control on issues such as land use and water.
In terms of campaign financing and endorsements, Democratic legislators from the Western Slope have largely refrained from taking strong stances. While some have participated in events with Buerger and contributed to his campaign, none have issued formal endorsements.
As of the latest campaign finance reports, both candidates have raised over $80,000, with Buerger having approximately $48,000 left to spend and Catlin holding around $64,000.
Catlin has garnered endorsements from several industry organizations, while Buerger has received backing from various state Democrats and advocacy groups.
Ballots will be mailed out starting October 11, and Election Day is set for November 5.