Jon Ralston, the editor of The Nevada Independent, has made a notable prediction for the upcoming presidential election, forecasting that Vice President Kamala Harris will narrowly win Nevada against former President Donald Trump. Ralston, who has a strong track record of accurate political predictions in the state, anticipates Harris will receive 48.5% of the vote, compared to Trump’s 48.2%. This forecast suggests a considerably closer race than in 2020, when Joe Biden won Nevada by over 33,000 votes.
Historically, Ralston has demonstrated his forecasting prowess by correctly predicting Republican Joe Lombardo’s victory over Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak in the 2022 gubernatorial race, as well as Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s successful reelection. His insights have proven reliable, as he accurately predicted that Nevada would support the Democratic presidential candidate in both the 2016 and 2020 elections.
However, Ralston notes that Harris faces a challenge due to a substantial lead among early voters for Republicans. Registered Republicans accounted for over 45% of all early voting ballots, while registered Democrats only made up 27.7%. This marks a significant shift from past elections, where Democrats often dominated early voting, particularly in Clark County, home to Las Vegas and a stronghold for the Democratic Party.
Despite this early setback, Ralston believes that as mail-in ballots from Clark County continue to be counted, Harris will begin to close the gap. He emphasizes the importance of independent voters and in-person turnout on Election Day for her success.
Nevada’s seven electoral votes are critical for both candidates, as winning the state could set the stage for victory in the broader election, particularly if they can also capture another toss-up state like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, or Georgia.
In addition to the presidential race, Ralston predicts that incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen will defeat her Republican challenger, Sam Brown, bolstered by a comfortable lead in recent polling.
Ralston’s predictions have drawn parallels to those of veteran pollster J. Ann Selzer, who recently forecasted Harris winning Iowa by three points, despite Trump’s strong support in the state. Selzer’s previous accuracy in predicting elections in Iowa adds to the credibility of these forecasts as the election approaches.