The Senate race between Republican Tim Sheehy and Democratic Senator Jon Tester in Montana is shaping up to be a key battleground in the 2024 elections, with significant implications for Senate control.
Montana, a traditionally Republican-leaning state, has seen a competitive race emerge, with recent polling favoring Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and businessman, against Tester, a centrist Democrat seeking his fourth term.
Sheehy currently holds a slight lead, with polling aggregators like FiveThirtyEight giving him a 3.7-point advantage over Tester.
Several polls, including those from RMG Research and Fabrizio Ward/AARP, have shown Sheehy ahead by margins of 6 to 7 points, a significant shift after previous surveys showed Tester in the lead.
This change has raised concerns among Democrats about Tester’s ability to maintain his seat in a state expected to strongly favor former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race.
Despite the polling trends, Tester has a significant fundraising advantage. He has raised approximately $43 million to Sheehy’s $14 million, according to the Federal Election Commission FEC.
Tester’s campaign has also outspent Sheehy’s, with $32.6 million in expenditures compared to Sheehy’s $10.6 million.
This financial edge, coupled with the smaller media markets in Montana, could prove crucial as the race intensifies.
Both parties have funneled substantial outside PAC money into the contest, with GOP-aligned groups spending over $43 million on Sheehy’s behalf, and Democratic-leaning PACs investing nearly $34.5 million in support of Tester or against Sheehy.
The Last Best Place PAC, affiliated with Democratic leadership, has been the largest outside spender, contributing $19 million to the race.
As Montana’s race draws national attention, it’s seen as pivotal for Senate control. Democrats, currently holding a slim 51-49 majority, face an uphill battle in retaining all their seats, particularly as the West Virginia seat held by Senator Joe Manchin is expected to flip to the GOP.
Montana, along with Ohio, is considered one of the most vulnerable Democratic seats, and Tester’s ability to hold on may be essential for his party’s hopes of maintaining a Senate majority.
Political forecasters such as Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have recently shifted their ratings of the race to Lean Republican, suggesting growing challenges for Tester.
Montana’s recent political trends, including decreased ticket-splitting and strong GOP support in presidential elections, have added to the difficulty of Tester’s reelection bid.
Sheehy, endorsed by Donald Trump, has faced scrutiny during the campaign, including allegations involving insensitive remarks about Indigenous people, but his campaign has denied these claims.
Meanwhile, Democrats appear to be diversifying their resources by focusing on Senate races in Florida and Texas, where polling suggests closer contests than in Montana.
The outcome of this race is poised to be one of the most closely watched in the 2024 election cycle, with the future balance of the U.S. Senate hanging in the balance.