The 2024 election in Wisconsin revealed a state deeply divided but exhibiting subtle shifts that ultimately led to a narrow victory for Donald Trump. The key story was not dramatic change but rather incremental shifts in Wisconsin’s voting geography, showcasing the state’s continued swing-state status with a heightened focus on the rural vote and modest suburban and urban adjustments.
In terms of the rural vote, Trump made his biggest gains, especially in small towns. This area, which represents about 30% of the electorate, had consistently trended Republican, with Trump expanding his margin from 2020. He gained over 25,000 votes in Wisconsin’s towns alone, almost matching his overall winning margin of 29,000 votes. The small towns, particularly those with fewer than 500 votes, saw Trump’s winning margin increase by more than 3 points.
Meanwhile, suburbs around Milwaukee remained crucial to the election outcome. While suburban Milwaukee’s swing toward Democrats slowed considerably from previous elections, it wasn’t enough to counterbalance Trump’s strong rural performance. Even within the suburbs, there were some modest shifts—places like Wauwatosa and Menomonee Falls showed signs of Democratic movement, but the overall trend was a continued, though less dramatic, Republican advantage.
Urban areas presented a mixed picture, with Trump making minor gains in cities like Milwaukee, where his loss margin was smaller than in 2020. However, these gains weren’t enough to offset the Democrats’ dominance in the larger urban centers. In smaller cities, like La Crosse and Beloit, Trump showed small but meaningful improvements.
The overall voting trends reflected the stable, realigning nature of Wisconsin’s electorate, with shifts generally confined to rural areas and smaller cities. This means that Wisconsin, despite being competitive, is becoming more resistant to large swings, with even modest shifts playing a significant role due to the state’s close margins. The state remains a battleground, but its political geography now appears entrenched in a tight division where small changes in voter behavior, turnout, and geography can dramatically impact outcomes.
Looking ahead to future elections in 2026 and 2028, Wisconsin’s track record suggests that it will remain one of the closest and most volatile states in the nation, but the dynamics could shift depending on national political environments and voter turnout.